Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x631b…1b70 world 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 424d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$8
other 35% +$1
politics 9% −$6
tech 2% $0
finance 2% +$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.8% -7.9% 67% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 20 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 20% -7.7%
≤90d 20 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 20% -7.7%
all 39 -7.0% -15.8% 44% 10% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 10% -9.0%
10% -23.9% 3% -17.7%
15% -31.2% 0% -25.6%
20% -38.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

424d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage424d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $45 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $99 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $9 $0 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $27 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $24 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $17 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $50 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $5 −$1 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $4 $0 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $11 +$2 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 $0 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $27 +$8 +30%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Dec 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 24 $6 $0 -5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Liberal Party win less than 35% of the vote in the 2025 Canad Apr 29 $1 −$1 -43%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 28 $15 $0 +2%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 26 $16 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 25 $2 $0 +5%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 23 $16 $0 -3%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $5 5m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $45 5m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $49 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $1 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $4 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $39 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $27 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $18 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 19h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $49 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $49 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $5 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $25 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $24 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $19 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $19 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $2 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $13 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records