Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x6322…ab7f sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$686 (+7%) realized +$693 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$753
7 days+$753
14 days+$364
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$41
other 42% +$675
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +37.6% +24.5% 100% 100% +24.5%
≤30d 14 -18.2% -26.0% 43% 43% -2.3%
≤90d 34 -17.8% -25.6% 41% 41% +0.8%
all 34 -17.8% -25.6% 41% 41% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 41% +0.8%
10% -32.7% 35% -8.9%
15% -39.2% 32% -17.7%
20% -45.2% 29% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$113 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$993
Realized+$693
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage58d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,008 +$339 +34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $995 +$414 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $112 −$109 -98%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $151 −$150 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $153 +$189 +124%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$161 +158%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $85 −$84 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $549 −$246 -45%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 May 26 $490 −$485 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $509 −$500 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $710 +$489 +69%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 26 $266 +$315 +119%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $1,794 +$216 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 06 $0 $0 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 06 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $31 −$30 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $50 +$191 +383%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $100 +$57 +57%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - Conquest of Prague O Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $100 +$80 +80%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $200 +$261 +131%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $200 +$34 +17%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $237 +$126 +53%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $100 +$117 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,347 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 74¢ $1,008 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $995 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 26¢ $112 8d
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 68¢ $151 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 9d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 94¢ $341 9d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $153 10d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 58¢ $85 12d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 19¢ $51 12d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 39¢ $102 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 19¢ $51 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 27¢ $288 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 45¢ $498 12d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 BUY Yes 62¢ $490 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 40¢ $509 25d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) SELL Knicks 84¢ $6 26d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) SELL Knicks 85¢ $576 26d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers SELL Knicks 93¢ $1,198 26d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Knicks 38¢ $266 26d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 54¢ $710 26d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $2,011 33d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $186 34d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 34d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 34d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 34d
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 9¢ $0 46d
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 14¢ $51 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $992.71 · official $992.86 (match) · 66 history records