Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x6325…cfaa other 854 markets active 15h ago coverage 376d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7,645 (+6%) realized +$7,662 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate89%739W / 91L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$1,664now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$419
7 days+$678
14 days+$739
30 days+$875
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$1,127
other 44% +$6,381
world 1% +$81
crypto 1% +$4
culture 0% −$5
finance 0% $0
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +1.5% -8.2% 96% 8% -6.6%
≤30d 179 -0.9% -10.3% 89% 14% -6.7%
≤90d 676 +5.8% -4.3% 93% 13% -4.9%
all 830 +4.2% -5.7% 89% 18% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 18% -4.3%
10% -14.8% 12% -13.5%
15% -23.0% 10% -21.8%
20% -30.5% 7% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$64 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$1,664
Realized+$7,662
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses739 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions24
Markets (closed)830 / 854
History coverage376d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 830 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 94¢ 94¢ $729 $729 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 78¢ $430 $392 −$37 (-9%)
Will James Rodríguez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $105 $117 +$12 (+12%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Dembele 39¢ 42¢ $105 $113 +$8 (+8%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 64¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+2%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? No 75¢ 79¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+5%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next? Yes 63¢ 41¢ $61 $40 −$21 (-35%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 41¢ 40¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane Mane 51¢ 49¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-4%)
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 88¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+15%)
Will Tahith Chong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 85¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2027? No 13¢ 69¢ $3 $16 +$13 (+435%)
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? No 33¢ 55¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+67%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $13 −$3 (-19%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 44¢ 36¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will Xavi Simons record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in Primeira Liga next? Yes $0 $1 +$1 (+225%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Marcel Sabitzer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 69¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+178%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in Bundesliga next? Yes $0 $1 +$0 (+167%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 70¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in Eredivisie next? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ibrahim Sabra: 1+ goals Jun 17 $43 +$2 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,550 +$227 +15%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots Jun 16 $247 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,054 +$173 +16%
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Matt Garbett: 2+ shots Jun 16 $74 +$1 +1%
Matt Garbett: 1+ shots Jun 16 $64 +$1 +1%
Saman Ghoddoos: 1+ shots Jun 16 $33 $0 +1%
Shahriyar Moghanloo: 2+ shots Jun 16 $23 $0 +1%
Shahriyar Moghanloo: 1+ shots Jun 16 $33 $0 +1%
Sarpreet Singh: 1+ shots Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Matt Garbett: 1+ goals Jun 16 $64 +$1 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2,871 +$29 +1%
Federico Viñas: 2+ shots Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $542 +$5 +1%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots Jun 15 $43 +$1 +2%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots Jun 15 $67 +$1 +1%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots Jun 15 $47 +$1 +1%
Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots Jun 15 $32 +$1 +2%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ shots Jun 15 $47 $0 +1%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ shots Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Pedri: 1+ shots Jun 15 $122 +$1 +1%
Jovane Cabral: 2+ shots Jun 15 $55 +$1 +1%
Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots Jun 15 $65 +$1 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $266 +$3 +1%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $278 +$3 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,871 +$29 +1%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots Jun 15 $42 $0 +1%
Sontje Hansen: 1+ shots Jun 14 $91 +$1 +1%
Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Leroy Sané: 2+ shots Jun 14 $41 +$1 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $129 +$1 +1%
İsmail Yüksek: 3+ shots Jun 14 $199 +$2 +1%
Nestory Irankunda: 2+ shots Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 4+ shots Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Jordy Bos: 1+ shots Jun 14 $92 +$14 +15%
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 3+ shots Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 5+ shots Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Orkun Kökçü: 1+ shots Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 2+ shots Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ shots Jun 14 $137 +$1 +1%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 3+ shots Jun 14 $141 +$2 +1%
İsmail Yüksek: 1+ shots Jun 14 $74 +$1 +1%
İsmail Yüksek: 2+ shots Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Arda Güler: 3+ shots Jun 14 $117 +$1 +1%
Arda Güler: 2+ shots Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu: 1+ shots Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $6 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $517 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $517 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $515 19h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $187 23h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $10 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 84¢ $433 24h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $49 24h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $8 25h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $18 25h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 25h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $2 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $621 25h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 33h
Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 37h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $226 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $114 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $127 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $91 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $33 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $0 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $7 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $89 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $15 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $8 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $22 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $46 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $42 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1,566 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,663.60 · official $1,663.22 (match) · 3093 history records