Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:04:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6326…c522 other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,414 (+16%) realized +$1,411 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%52W / 68L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days+$75
14 days+$75
30 days+$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% +$1,429
other 7% −$41
sports 3% +$16
crypto 1% −$7
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -4.6% -13.7% 43% 43% +2.1%
≤30d 80 -10.9% -19.4% 42% 41% -2.6%
≤90d 81 -8.2% -17.0% 43% 42% +28.1%
all 120 -14.0% -22.2% 43% 40% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 40% +5.1%
10% -29.7% 33% -5.0%
15% -36.5% 31% -14.2%
20% -42.7% 26% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$16 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$1,411
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses52 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)120 / 127
History coverage161d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt leading at halftime? Yes 15¢ 100¢ $5 $33 +$28 (+563%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 28¢ $24 $11 −$14 (-57%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 72¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+48%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 4.5 Corners Over 26¢ 50¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+89%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$22 -87%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$5 +35%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$4 +85%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 $0 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 +$15 +63%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $13 +$12 +89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 +$15 +510%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$6 -52%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 −$3 -15%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +74%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$10 +109%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 +$7 +137%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 +$6 +180%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3 +$7 +285%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -78%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $42 +$21 +51%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o Jun 13 $17 +$10 +57%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 +$10 +206%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 +$5 +63%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$7 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +94%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 26¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 27¢ $3 1h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 22¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 3h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 13¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 5¢ $0 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 25¢ $2 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $13 17h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 83¢ $8 17h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 17h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $4 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 19h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.67 · official $63.67 (match) · 684 history records