Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
63 0x6327…089f crypto 75 markets active 5h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%61W / 13L
Whale WR13%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$4
crypto 21% +$2
politics 20% −$3
economics 13% −$2
other 13% −$2
world 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 74 +0.2% -9.4% 82% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 13% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses61 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)13%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage141d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 31? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 19? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 15? May 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 27? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 22? Apr 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 19? Apr 22 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 11? Apr 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 3? Apr 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 26? Apr 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 20? Mar 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on March 18? Mar 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 17? Mar 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on March 16? Mar 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 13? Mar 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 12? Mar 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 11? Mar 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 7? Mar 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 6? Mar 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 3? Mar 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 2? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 1? Mar 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on February 27? Mar 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on February 26? Feb 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on February 25? Feb 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on February 24? Feb 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on February 22? Feb 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on February 21? Feb 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on February 20? Feb 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on February 19? Feb 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on February 18? Feb 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on February 17? Feb 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on February 16? Feb 16 $1,109 +$1 +0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 16 $1,110 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $1,111 −$1 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $1,112 −$1 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 16 $1,113 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $1,114 −$1 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 16 $1,116 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $1,117 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $1,118 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 4h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $6 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $6 17d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $6 28d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $6 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $6 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 56d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 58d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $6 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 83d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $6 89d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on March 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 91d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $6 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 94d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 13? BUY No 100¢ $6 95d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 96d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $6 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 99d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 101d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 104d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 3? BUY No 100¢ $6 105d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 2? BUY No 100¢ $6 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.04 · official $6.04 (match) · 153 history records