Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x632d…0526 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$214 (-4%) realized −$206 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%24W / 18L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$37
14 days+$67
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% −$149
other 14% −$31
tech 4% +$15
weather 1% +$6
sports 1% +$6
finance 1% −$19
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -36.7% -42.7% 25% 25% -36.0%
≤30d 5 -8.6% -17.3% 40% 40% +17.5%
≤90d 32 -24.7% -31.9% 47% 38% -12.5%
all 42 -17.7% -25.5% 57% 43% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 43% -12.1%
10% -32.6% 19% -20.5%
15% -39.1% 7% -28.2%
20% -45.1% 2% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$50 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$206
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses24 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage101d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 86¢ 82¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 31¢ 31¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $35 −$31 -87%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -68%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $50 −$4 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $30 +$5 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$104 +104%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026 Apr 21 $724 −$724 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026? Apr 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Apr 12 $20 −$9 -45%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Apr 12 $60 −$1 -2%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? Apr 12 $30 −$18 -60%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026? Apr 11 $500 +$53 +11%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? Apr 09 $524 +$131 +25%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? Apr 07 $760 +$11 +2%
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? Apr 06 $759 +$32 +4%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026? Apr 05 $701 +$70 +10%
Will MrBeast say "Contestant" during his next video? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 3? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? Apr 03 $316 +$143 +45%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" this week? (April 5) Mar 31 $18 +$6 +34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $25 −$21 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on March 29? Mar 29 $50 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 29? Mar 29 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? Mar 28 $286 +$117 +41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 26 $11 +$2 +19%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 26 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 25 $25 −$22 -91%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Mar 24 $139 +$25 +18%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 23 $30 +$7 +24%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next video? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" during his next video? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 18 $40 −$15 -38%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 16 $41 +$6 +14%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 15 $28 +$3 +11%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $33 +$3 +8%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 13 $12 +$1 +11%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on March 10? Mar 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on M Mar 10 $5 +$1 +24%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? Mar 10 $31 +$4 +13%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? Mar 09 $25 +$3 +10%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? Mar 07 $10 −$6 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $9 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $50 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $15 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $15 31h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 44h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 31¢ $10 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $46 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $50 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $35 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 7d
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026 BUY No 2¢ $10 62d
Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $11 63d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 63d
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026 BUY No 39¢ $59 63d
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $59 63d
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026 BUY No 36¢ $12 63d
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 63d
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026 BUY No 61¢ $143 63d
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $100 64d
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $400 64d
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 64d
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $60 66d
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.98 · official $121.98 (match) · 136 history records