Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:08:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x6336…741a crypto 72 markets active 3d ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$439 (+2%) realized +$365 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%65W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$83
14 days+$160
30 days+$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$398
other 13% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 70 +1.3% -8.4% 93% 7% -8.4%
≤90d 70 +1.3% -8.4% 93% 7% -8.4%
all 70 +1.3% -8.4% 93% 7% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 7% -8.4%
10% -17.1% 4% -17.2%
15% -25.1% 3% -25.2%
20% -32.5% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$594) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×18.75 per $1 lost it wins $18.75
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized+$365
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses65 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage24d
Avg bet$399
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 63¢ 97¢ $126 $194 +$68 (+54%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $1,894 +$17 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $51 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $556 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $1,676 +$24 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $189 +$11 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $301 +$9 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,594 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,885 +$15 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $440 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $504 +$7 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 14? Jun 15 $752 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $742 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $780 +$8 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$9 -24%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1,992 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $82 +$4 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $997 +$3 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 10? Jun 11 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $981 +$19 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$3 +49%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $481 +$19 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7? Jun 08 $972 +$28 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 6? Jun 07 $507 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $998 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,650 on June 6? Jun 07 $284 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $498 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $85 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $139 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 5? Jun 06 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 5? Jun 06 $17 −$5 -27%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 5? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $995 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? Jun 05 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$3 +220%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 4? Jun 05 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 04 $594 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $1,288 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 99¢ $606 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $32 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $506 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $37 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $9 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1,676 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $189 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $310 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1,598 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $301 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,594 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,786 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 7d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $440 7d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 63¢ $126 8d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $4 8d
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $752 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $742 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $493 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $2 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $236 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.76 · official $249.76 (match) · 193 history records