Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:31:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6336…b618 other 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$304 (-10%) realized −$325 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%34W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$27
14 days−$242
30 days−$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$397
sports 28% +$135
crypto 7% +$6
tech 4% −$30
politics 1% +$1
economics 1% −$13
world 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -19.6% -27.2% 35% 29% -11.5%
≤30d 51 -34.4% -40.7% 27% 25% -24.9%
≤90d 56 -32.9% -39.3% 27% 25% -22.9%
all 125 -31.1% -37.6% 27% 24% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 24% -20.6%
10% -43.6% 22% -28.2%
15% -49.0% 17% -35.1%
20% -54.0% 12% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$325
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses34 / 91
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)125 / 138
History coverage585d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $33 $39 +$6 (+17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $18 $29 +$11 (+65%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 34¢ $13 $23 +$10 (+74%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 40¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 +$30 +59%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $27 +$9 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06 Jun 23 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -91%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $81 −$7 -8%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $35 +$8 +22%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06-22 Jun 23 $56 +$29 +51%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $35 +$22 +62%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $26 −$23 -90%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $30 −$10 -35%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $16 −$3 -18%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $53 −$9 -16%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $47 −$9 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $80 −$55 -69%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $67 +$21 +31%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$47 -93%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$7 -85%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$42 -91%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $24 −$3 -11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $89 +$25 +29%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $22 −$4 -17%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$11 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 +$11 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $18 −$3 -17%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$16 -85%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -18%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 +$17 +103%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$10 -74%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $18 +$25 +133%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $62 +$38 +62%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 10 $27 −$25 -95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? AND Will Colombia vs. DR Congo BUY 3¢ $4 3m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 2¢ $14 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 74¢ $0 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 74¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 65¢ $81 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $14 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 2¢ $4 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 1¢ $2 6h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06 SELL 0¢ $1 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-2 BUY 30¢ $14 12h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $99 12h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $35 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-2 BUY 5¢ $14 14h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06 BUY 2¢ $5 14h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06-22 BUY 66¢ $56 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 29h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 41h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $20 41h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 10¢ $31 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 5¢ $26 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A BUY 5¢ $36 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $36 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 36¢ $12 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.88 · official $126.62 · 393 history records