Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x6336…a21c
crypto · 60 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$9 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses24 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage89d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 3 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 52¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 $0 -13%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -82%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $13 −$1 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 17 $7 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 17 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 17 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 17 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 16 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 16 $23 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 16 $20 −$17 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 16 $34 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 16 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 16 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 16 $7 +$18 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 16 $3 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 16 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 16 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 16 $5 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 16 $7 +$14 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 16 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 15 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 91% −$13
sports 9% +$4
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $7 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 13h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 2¢ $0 16h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 11¢ $2 16h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 57¢ $12 16h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 20h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 20h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $4 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $8 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $0 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $26 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $23 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $3 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -6.9% -15.8% 25% 25% +6.0%
≤30d 4 -6.9% -15.8% 25% 25% +6.0%
≤90d 57 -16.8% -24.7% 42% 35% -11.1%
all 57 -16.8% -24.7% 42% 35% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 35% -11.1%
10% -31.9% 25% -19.6%
15% -38.5% 21% -27.4%
20% -44.5% 21% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.43 · official $14.43 (match) · 132 history records