Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6339…ad29 other 232 markets active 6d ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$349 (+39%) realized +$395 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%76W / 96L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$48
world 16% +$438
crypto 7% −$12
finance 3% −$22
politics 1% −$6
tech 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -23.8% -31.1% 36% 36% -57.7%
≤90d 23 -24.9% -32.0% 30% 30% -63.5%
all 172 +14.7% +3.8% 44% 39% +48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 39% +48.7%
10% -6.2% 35% +34.5%
15% -15.2% 31% +21.5%
20% -23.5% 27% +9.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×3.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$411
Realized+$395
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses76 / 96
Open positions60
Markets (closed)172 / 232
History coverage371d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 60 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $73 $78 +$5 (+7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $24 +$13 (+117%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $12 $22 +$10 (+81%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+52%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+35%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+28%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-20%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+73%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-18%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-18%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-27%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-36%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-22%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-44%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +114%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $4 $0 -6%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? May 27 $1 +$2 +113%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $4 −$3 -100%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 24 $1 +$1 +68%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 19 $1 +$1 +56%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 +$7 +277%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 +$4 +122%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 +$1 +47%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $34 −$32 -94%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 08 $5 −$1 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 08 $2 +$2 +133%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 08 $2 +$2 +150%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Mar 07 $2 +$3 +200%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 07 $2 +$2 +122%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 07 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 03 $2 +$2 +96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 03 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $4 +$16 +425%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $15 +$434 +2816%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $0 +$4 +852%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $8 +$5 +66%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $0 $0 +100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1 +$9 +614%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $1 +$4 +350%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 27 $2 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 27 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 27 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 26 $1 +$1 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 6d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 7d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 7d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 10d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 10d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 17d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 20d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 20d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 21d
Ebola pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 21d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 22d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 22d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411.20 · official $411.24 (match) · 960 history records