Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
63 0x6339…141e sports 214 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,503 (-5%) realized −$1,513 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%102W / 111L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$96
14 days−$112
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$947
sports 28% −$154
other 23% +$941
crypto 11% −$1,364
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -20.1% -27.7% 48% 48% -16.9%
≤30d 39 -20.7% -28.2% 44% 44% -7.6%
≤90d 45 -24.6% -31.8% 42% 42% -17.3%
all 213 -24.5% -31.6% 48% 40% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 40% -14.0%
10% -38.2% 32% -22.2%
15% -44.2% 24% -29.7%
20% -49.6% 19% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$91 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$1,513
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses102 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)213 / 214
History coverage149d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Under 64¢ 70¢ $102 $113 +$10 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $120 +$53 +44%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $62 +$35 +57%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $41 +$36 +88%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $82 +$21 +26%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $70 −$69 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $47 +$53 +113%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $32 +$32 +100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $48 +$32 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $32 −$31 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $58 +$22 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $83 −$83 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$65 +65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $82 +$68 +82%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 07 $245 −$245 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $148 +$169 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $140 +$60 +43%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $23 +$25 +107%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $53 −$53 -100%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $51 +$49 +97%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $120 −$80 -67%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $176 −$79 -45%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $114 −$114 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $62 +$38 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $164 +$188 +114%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $344 +$307 +89%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31? Mar 28 $384 +$104 +27%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $101 −$97 -96%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 28 $108 −$106 -98%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $496 −$478 -96%
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by March 31? Mar 27 $265 +$167 +63%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Mar 18 $114 −$114 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16? Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? Mar 18 $712 −$712 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Casper Ruud Mar 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $104 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $120 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $40 37h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $34 37h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $11 37h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $12 37h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 37h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 37h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $36 37h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 SELL Under 97¢ $97 38h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $38 38h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $76 39h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $35 39h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $6 39h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $62 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $82 41h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 63¢ $70 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $32 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $47 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $48 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $32 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $80 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $58 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $26 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $83 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 5d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.80 · official $112.80 (match) · 859 history records