Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x633a…844d sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$40 (+38%) realized +$1 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -23.7% -30.9% 50% 50% +8.7%
≤30d 2 -23.7% -30.9% 50% 50% +8.7%
≤90d 2 -23.7% -30.9% 50% 50% +8.7%
all 2 -23.7% -30.9% 50% 50% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 50% +8.7%
10% -37.6% 50% -1.7%
15% -43.6% 50% -11.2%
20% -49.1% 50% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Sharks 64¢ 100¢ $70 $109 +$39 (+56%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Sharks 84¢ 100¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+19%)
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 2 Winner OG 61¢ 55¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva Caroline Werner 10¢ 34¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+244%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera Marina Bassols Ribera 44¢ 84¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+89%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Inner Circle Esports 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Clervie Ngounoue Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Harold Mayot Jun 24 $4 +$2 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.75 · official $140.76 (match) · 16 history records