Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
63 0x633b…3388 crypto 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+6%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$11
crypto 41% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +6.3% -3.8% 59% 52% -3.3%
≤30d 29 +6.3% -3.8% 59% 52% -3.3%
≤90d 29 +6.3% -3.8% 59% 52% -3.3%
all 29 +6.3% -3.8% 59% 52% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 52% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 48% -12.5%
15% -21.4% 38% -21.0%
20% -29.1% 28% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$1 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $24 +$2 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $17 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$7 +625%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $26 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $24 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records