Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:18:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x633d…1d6c world 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate33%33W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$3
other 20% +$6
politics 18% +$2
sports 8% −$20
economics 4% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.9% -7.8% 17% 8% -9.2%
≤30d 31 +74.1% +57.5% 29% 13% -9.4%
≤90d 81 +26.4% +14.4% 30% 5% -9.6%
all 99 +23.9% +12.1% 33% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.1% 8% -9.8%
10% +1.3% 5% -18.4%
15% -8.5% 5% -26.3%
20% -17.4% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses33 / 66
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)99 / 103
History coverage531d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 84¢ 82¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $36 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $36 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $25 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $11 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $39 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $3 $0 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $60 +$2 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $41 −$3 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $107 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $75 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $75 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $41 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $40 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $19 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $102 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $75 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 15 $31 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 11 $41 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 09 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 08 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $2 $0 -18%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $70 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 14m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 14m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $36 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $36 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $36 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $4 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $32 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $25 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 34h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $39 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $39 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.40 · official $0.00 · 397 history records