Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x633f…0e01 crypto 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$175 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%86W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$81
14 days−$87
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$49
other 22% −$47
sports 1% −$32
finance 0% −$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -25.4% -32.5% 38% 25% -18.2%
≤30d 27 -13.4% -21.6% 37% 26% -15.2%
≤90d 82 -6.2% -15.1% 48% 37% -15.7%
all 173 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 38% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 38% -11.5%
10% -22.9% 26% -19.9%
15% -30.3% 20% -27.7%
20% -37.1% 13% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses86 / 87
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)173 / 176
History coverage96d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 35¢ 65¢ $49 $92 +$43 (+88%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $124 $0 −$124 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Will Bologna reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $139 +$55 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $142 −$56 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $34 −$20 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $132 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $224 −$88 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $62 −$58 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $115 +$87 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $33 −$3 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $43 −$10 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $42 −$14 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $45 +$4 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $254 −$31 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $44 −$15 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $42 −$11 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $44 +$94 +214%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $17 +$14 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $3 −$1 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $21 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $3 +$2 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $6 +$1 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $8 −$5 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $15 −$7 -45%
Will Bologna reach the UEFA Europa League semifinal? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 16 $4 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 16 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $60 −$33 -54%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 14 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $13 +$17 +132%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $20 −$14 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$1 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 06 $8 −$6 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 06 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 06 $11 −$5 -48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 22 $50 −$19 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 22 $76 −$14 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 22 $31 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 22 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 22 $16 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 22 $6 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 22 $23 −$10 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 22 $8 +$5 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 22 $23 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 22 $5 +$3 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 22m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 23m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 25m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 25m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 26m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 27m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 28m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 28m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 30m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $71 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $32 6h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $32 6h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 14h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 20h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 20h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 20h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 20h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $9 20h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $17 20h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 26h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 26h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 27h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 27h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 27h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 27h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 27h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 27h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.19 · official $140.20 (match) · 595 history records