Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6343…fd0e world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$2
other 12% −$1
sports 8% $0
politics 8% $0
culture 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 21 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 21 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 5% -9.7%
all 44 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage270d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $34 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $67 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $10 −$5 -45%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $34 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $71 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $70 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $72 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 06 $3 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 05 $24 $0 -2%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $25 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 01 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $54 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $33 50m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $34 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $7 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $37 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $37 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $2 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $32 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $33 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $11 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $22 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $28 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $5 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $6 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 15¢ $10 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $24 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $34 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $38 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records