Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6343…943b other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$126 (-24%) realized −$125 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$111
other 35% +$2
crypto 4% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -28.4% -35.3% 38% 38% -37.7%
≤30d 13 -28.4% -35.3% 38% 38% -37.7%
≤90d 13 -28.4% -35.3% 38% 38% -37.7%
all 13 -28.4% -35.3% 38% 38% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.3% 38% -37.7%
10% ← realistic here -41.5% 38% -43.7%
15% -47.1% 31% -49.1%
20% -52.3% 23% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$28 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$125
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 54¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Over 68¢ 68¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $39 +$9 +23%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $29 +$33 +114%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -97%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $30 +$24 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $12 +$9 +76%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots Jun 17 $38 −$38 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $26 −$1 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $119 −$119 -100%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $53 +$23 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $55 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 68¢ $48 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $39 10h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 10h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $54 10h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $29 11h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $18 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up $1 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes $1 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes $1 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes $0 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes $1 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes $5 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes $1 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes $2 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Team to Take First Corner SELL Argentina $0 13h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots BUY Yes 65¢ $24 14h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 45¢ $24 14h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $26 14h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots BUY Yes 60¢ $5 14h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots BUY Yes 59¢ $9 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Team to Take First Corner BUY Argentina 67¢ $16 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $9 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $2 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.60 · official $108.60 (match) · 41 history records