Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6345…46d3 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$8
other 6% +$1
finance 3% $0
weather 3% $0
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 +3.2% -6.6% 53% 12% -8.6%
≤90d 17 +3.2% -6.6% 53% 12% -8.6%
all 31 -1.1% -10.5% 58% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 6% -8.8%
10% -19.1% 3% -17.5%
15% -26.9% 3% -25.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage480d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $73 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $15 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $41 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $103 +$7 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $44 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 01 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $19 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $9 +$1 +14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $78 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $160 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $5 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $73 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $2 +$1 +39%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Dec 09 $2 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 02 $5 $0 -6%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? Mar 31 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 26 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 25? Mar 26 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $15 $0 +3%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 23 $15 $0 +3%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 21 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $33 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $32 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $9 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $16 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $33 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $44 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $18 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $18 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $0 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records