Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6347…4390 crypto 238 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (552 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,858 (+11%) realized +$5,863 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%100W / 273L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day552.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$2,344
other 7% −$333
world 2% −$855
sports 1% +$272
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (552 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 373 -36.5% -42.5% 27% 25% -16.3%
≤30d 373 -36.5% -42.5% 27% 25% -16.3%
≤90d 373 -36.5% -42.5% 27% 25% -16.3%
all 373 -36.5% -42.5% 27% 25% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover552.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.5% 25% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -48.0% 23% -24.3%
15% -53.0% 20% -31.6%
20% -57.7% 17% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -77% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$85 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$425
Realized+$5,863
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses100 / 273
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)373 / 238
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$223
Trades / day552.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 42¢ $430 $425 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 215 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $425.00 · official $425.00 (match) · 3500 history records