Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

63 0x6349…b664 other 20 markets active 11h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,393 (+50%) realized +$1,419 · open −$26

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%9W / 6L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$138per market

Trades / day5.4pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$151

7 days+$381

14 days+$1,500

30 days+$1,500

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+12.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+19.2%	+7.9%	57%	57%	+18.8%
≤30d	15	+24.7%	+12.9%	60%	60%	+49.2%
≤90d	15	+24.7%	+12.9%	60%	60%	+49.2%
all	15	+24.7%	+12.9%	60%	60%	+49.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+12.9%	60%	+49.2%
10%	+2.1%	60%	+34.9%
15%	-7.8%	60%	+21.9%
20%	-16.8%	47%	+9.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 85% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +65% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +25% · $-wt +65% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -22% → late +66% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$209 vs −$63 · ×3.31 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.96 per $1 lost it wins $4.96

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized+$1,419

Unrealized−$26

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses9 / 6

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 20

History coverage7d

Avg bet$138

Trades / day5.4

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	Yes	60¢	11¢	$31	$5	−$26 (-82%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	Jun 20	$31	+$50	+163%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND	Jun 19	$20	+$61	+300%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$56	+$49	+88%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$96	+$53	+56%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$51	+$39	+76%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria?	Jun 17	$25	+$11	+46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$50	+$24	+48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-99%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$507	+$472	+93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$249	−$244	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$1,096	+$1,120	+102%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	SELL	90¢	$81	11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	33¢	$15	19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	33¢	$15	19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND	SELL	94¢	$82	33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	92¢	$105	33h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND	BUY	23¢	$20	42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$56	43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	73¢	$10	43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND	BUY	19¢	$15	43h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$15	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	46¢	$335	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Exact Score: Portugal	BUY	10¢	$15	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	57¢	$25	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	34¢	$25	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	98¢	$149	3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$89	3d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria?	SELL Yes	100¢	$37	3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	54¢	$25	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$25	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	47¢	$20	3d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria?	BUY Yes	68¢	$25	3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5	BUY Over	57¢	$25	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$74	3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	BUY Yes	60¢	$31	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$50	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	70¢	$50	4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	53¢	$51	4d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$10	4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	41¢	$51	4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$979	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.49 · official $5.50 (match) · 38 history records