Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:52:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x634a…dddf sports 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$347 (-7%) realized −$246 · open −$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%46W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$263
crypto 36% −$281
other 12% −$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +15.2% +4.2% 48% 44% -24.5%
≤30d 96 +15.2% +4.2% 48% 44% -24.5%
≤90d 96 +15.2% +4.2% 48% 44% -24.5%
all 96 +15.2% +4.2% 48% 44% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.2% 44% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -5.7% 43% -31.7%
15% -14.9% 36% -38.3%
20% -23.2% 32% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$45 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$246
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses46 / 50
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage7d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs TDK 38¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $195 −$191 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $151 +$22 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $53 +$25 +47%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$17 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $66 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$12 +23%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $20 +$24 +119%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $39 −$38 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$11 +26%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $74 +$74 +99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $57 +$97 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$135 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -95%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$52 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$34 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$17 +81%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$25 +97%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY TDK 8¢ $8 47m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY TDK 55¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $78 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 28¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 24¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 36¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 27¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $35 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $69 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.