Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:13:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x634d…4d02 weather 211 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate63%131W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$75
14 days−$92
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -10.9% -19.4% 42% 29% -26.2%
≤30d 92 -1.0% -10.4% 65% 47% -9.4%
≤90d 209 +0.2% -9.3% 63% 47% -10.2%
all 209 +0.2% -9.3% 63% 47% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 47% -10.2%
10% -18.0% 24% -18.8%
15% -25.9% 13% -26.6%
20% -33.2% 9% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses131 / 78
Open positions2
Markets (closed)209 / 211
History coverage59d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 19? No 93¢ 94¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 19? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 19 $13 −$12 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 18 $19 −$16 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 17 $4 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $27 −$12 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $8 −$3 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $30 +$16 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $31 −$29 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $17 +$37 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 15 $14 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 14 $4 −$3 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $52 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 14 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $15 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 12 $3 +$4 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 12 $13 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 11 $16 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $37 −$23 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 10 $14 −$7 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $13 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $32 −$9 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 09 $26 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $30 +$7 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 09 $27 −$12 -44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $42 −$11 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 08 $15 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 06 $32 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 06 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $92 +$21 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 05 $11 +$4 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 04 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $27 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 04 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3? Jun 04 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $88 +$15 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $19 +$2 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 93¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 28h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY Yes 25¢ $13 30h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 41¢ $21 30h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 43h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 80¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 30¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 30¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 80¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 15¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 10¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 15¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 52¢ $27 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 14¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 44¢ $46 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 37¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 44¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 40¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 37¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 37¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 37¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 41¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 36¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.15 · official $58.15 (match) · 825 history records