Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:45:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6351…a086 crypto 1659 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate92%1566W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$22
14 days−$59
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$43
other 1% −$69
sports 0% −$10
finance 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 504 -9.0% -17.7% 87% 5% -11.9%
≤30d 1688 -2.6% -11.9% 93% 9% -10.0%
≤90d 1702 -3.2% -12.4% 92% 9% -10.8%
all 1702 -3.2% -12.4% 92% 9% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 9% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 2% -19.3%
15% -28.5% 1% -27.1%
20% -35.5% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1566 / 136
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1702 / 1659
History coverage88d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1702 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 96¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -248%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.64 · official $2.45 (match) · 3389 history records