Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
63 0x6354…a1c0 crypto 774 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,415 (+28%) realized +$2,394 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%447W / 331L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day56.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$815
7 days+$1,116
14 days+$1,190
30 days+$1,111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,134
other 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 554 +12.1% +1.4% 64% 58% +3.8%
≤30d 633 +3.0% -6.8% 59% 53% +3.2%
≤90d 778 -2.0% -11.3% 57% 51% +2.5%
all 778 -2.0% -11.3% 57% 51% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 51% +2.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 23% -7.3%
15% -27.6% 15% -16.3%
20% -34.7% 12% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$2,394
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses447 / 331
Open positions32
Markets (closed)778 / 774
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day56.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 778 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dayne St. Clair win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 43¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+975%)
Will Daniel win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 42¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+945%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+5%)
Will Zack Steffen win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 35¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+777%)
Will Carlos Coronel win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+342%)
Will Yohei Takaoka win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 5¢ 20¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+310%)
Will Andre Blake win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 15¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+278%)
Will James Pantemis win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+126%)
Will Aljaž Ivačič win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 5¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+111%)
Will Sean Johnson win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+99%)
Will Patrick Schulte win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will Kevin Larivee be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Will Jesus Luzardo win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Brandon Sowers be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Travis Etienne be traded? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 7.0% and 8.0%? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will Zack Wheeler win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 8.0% and 9.0%? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Detroit Lions next? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Martinelli have the most goal contributions in the 2025-2 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vitinha have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champions Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 4 or 5 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 2 or 3 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $13 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $127 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$40 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $17 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $54 −$48 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$7 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$9 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $150 +$80 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$27 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$22 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $34 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$58 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $43 −$13 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$10 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $50 −$18 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$6 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $34 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$11 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$3 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $15 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $15 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $13 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $15 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $50 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $12 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $13 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $13 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.45 · official $62.59 (match) · 3500 history records