Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:14:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6355…9b32 other 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,796 (+3%) realized +$2,797 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate21%30W / 111L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$769per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$14
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$3,286
politics 25% −$8
sports 12% −$388
world 3% −$102
economics 3% +$1
culture 2% −$2
crypto 2% +$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 69 +4.2% -5.7% 6% 1% -5.9%
all 141 -4.4% -13.5% 21% 9% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 9% -7.2%
10% -21.8% 9% -16.1%
15% -29.3% 7% -24.2%
20% -36.3% 5% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,034) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$10 · ×12.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.47 per $1 lost it wins $3.47
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$1,000
Realized+$2,797
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses30 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage159d
Avg bet$769
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $583 $583 −$0 (-0%)
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $417 $417 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,938 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 11 $938 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,754 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $779 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $1,701 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $266 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $383 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $4,063 −$4 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $463 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $810 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,003 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,100 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,091 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $1,169 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 01 $484 +$1 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,463 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $3,190 −$3 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,133 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,150 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $2,808 −$3 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $942 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $2,211 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,610 −$2 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $1,132 +$3,396 +300%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $2,579 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $995 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $417 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $583 7h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $817 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $818 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $949 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $950 4d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $987 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $988 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $937 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $938 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $763 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $765 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $706 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $707 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,033 9d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,034 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $808 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $809 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $809 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $810 11d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,028 11d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $778 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $779 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $829 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $830 15d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $872 15d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $873 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $994 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $995 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $999.84 · official $999.84 (match) · 451 history records