Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6358…23f1 other 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$161 (-4%) realized −$168 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%72W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$15
14 days−$69
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$414
sports 18% +$80
world 5% +$91
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -17.4% -25.3% 43% 43% -13.6%
≤30d 64 -24.3% -31.5% 33% 33% -10.3%
≤90d 178 -10.4% -18.9% 40% 39% -15.5%
all 178 -10.4% -18.9% 40% 39% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 39% -15.5%
10% -26.7% 37% -23.6%
15% -33.8% 33% -31.0%
20% -40.3% 31% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses72 / 106
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)178 / 179
History coverage67d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $33 $40 +$7 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $41 +$24 +57%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $11 −$10 -96%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $25 +$16 +65%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $38 −$37 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -96%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$11 +109%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $12 −$12 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $11 +$9 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $22 +$53 +242%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -77%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $14 +$12 +83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$13 +55%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $14 +$10 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $9 +$5 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $11 +$11 +97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 +$19 +124%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$18 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$19 +124%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $31 −$28 -91%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 +$40 +130%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$4 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $88 +$115 +130%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 16 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Levante UD (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $54 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 14h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $10 14h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 30h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $15 32h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $25 32h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 40h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 44h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 44h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $12 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $2 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $73 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $14 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $23 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $14 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.36 · official $40.36 (match) · 498 history records