Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:51:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6360…4aa1 crypto 635 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate71%450W / 185L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day34.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$26
14 days+$25
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -0.1% -9.7% 79% 29% -7.3%
≤30d 378 -5.4% -14.4% 68% 36% -10.1%
≤90d 635 -4.1% -13.2% 71% 44% -11.0%
all 635 -4.1% -13.2% 71% 44% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 44% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 14% -19.5%
15% -29.1% 7% -27.3%
20% -36.1% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses450 / 185
Open positions0
Markets (closed)635 / 635
History coverage35d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day34.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 635 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$4 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$5 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $22 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $23 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$3 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$3 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$3 -21%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.00 (match) · 1545 history records