Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
63 0x6360…7796 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+3%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate81%13W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -2.2% -11.5% 81% 56% -7.3%
≤30d 16 -2.2% -11.5% 81% 56% -7.3%
≤90d 16 -2.2% -11.5% 81% 56% -7.3%
all 16 -2.2% -11.5% 81% 56% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 56% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 25% -16.2%
15% -27.7% 19% -24.3%
20% -34.8% 6% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses13 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $12 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $7 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records