Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:31:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6368…71b5 weather 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%105W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 32% $0
politics 20% −$3
other 19% −$4
crypto 13% −$1
sports 6% −$8
culture 4% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% −$2
world 1% −$5
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -0.0% -9.5% 39% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 78 -0.0% -9.5% 35% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 160 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 0% -9.7%
all 226 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses105 / 121
Open positions3
Markets (closed)226 / 229
History coverage560d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 22-28? Jun 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 38°C or higher on June Jun 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 29? Jun 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 29? Jun 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or below on June 28? Jun 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 28 Jun 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? Jun 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on June 28? Jun 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Jun 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 27? Jun 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 27? Jun 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on June 27? Jun 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 27? Jun 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 26 Jun 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading Jun 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 26? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on June 26? Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 25 Jun 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 24? Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 19? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 4? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 3? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 3? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 4? Jun 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on June 3? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Katie Bansil be the Democratic nominee for NJ-06? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 9h
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 10h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $16 10h
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 14h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 38°C or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 38°C or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 38°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $9 17h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $23 18h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? BUY No 100¢ $19 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on June 29 BUY No 100¢ $29 22h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 28 SELL No 100¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $27 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 28 SELL No 100¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June SELL No 100¢ $6 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $27 28h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 28 BUY No 100¢ $8 30h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June BUY No 100¢ $6 31h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $13 33h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $13 40h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $6 40h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $23 41h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $10 41h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $16 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.74 · official $88.74 (match) · 584 history records