Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x636c…8827
sports · 149 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$28 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$28 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses60 / 85
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)145 / 149
History coverage57d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 4 History 145 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$46
14 days−$5
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 33¢ 32¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+36%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Mexico 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
1H Spread: Celtics (-3.5) 76ers 51¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Oh My God 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner G2 Esports 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers 76ers 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 G2 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Global Esports 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Kiwoom DRX 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Nongshim Red Force 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Trail Blazers 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Weibo Gaming 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Global Esports 43¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Red Force 28¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 47¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FULL SENSE 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner DN SOOPers 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Suns Suns 25¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$8 +166%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $35 −$5 -14%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $7 +$8 +114%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$2 +76%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 +$19 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +56%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$19 +158%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $33 +$66 +197%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $4 +$5 +129%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 07 $20 −$1 -5%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $7 +$9 +128%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $15 +$15 +101%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $11 −$11 -96%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $19 −$18 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 02 $19 −$1 -5%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Nova Esports (BO5) - China Evolution Series A May 31 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $18 +$17 +93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $37 +$21 +57%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $29 −$29 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $13 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 +$3 +62%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 09 $27 −$27 -98%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 09 $13 +$14 +105%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $33 +$31 +93%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 09 $2 +$4 +226%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $17 +$18 +105%
Valorant: All Gamers vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoff May 08 $6 +$6 +101%
Valorant: All Gamers vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 08 $4 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% −$26
other 12% +$65
crypto 4% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $6 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $4 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $5 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $5 5h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $5 6h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $31 6h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 97¢ $30 7h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 60¢ $5 8h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $16 8h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $4 9h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 57¢ $3 9h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 46¢ $7 10h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 56¢ $2 10h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 32¢ $1 12h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 41¢ $2 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 31h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $2 31h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $1 32h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 24¢ $1 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 2d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 46¢ $2 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -7.5% -16.3% 39% 39% +11.6%
≤30d 38 -26.9% -33.8% 32% 32% -19.8%
≤90d 145 -4.2% -13.3% 41% 40% -7.6%
all 145 -4.2% -13.3% 41% 40% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 40% -7.6%
10% -21.6% 36% -16.4%
15% -29.2% 34% -24.5%
20% -36.1% 31% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.38 · official $21.38 (match) · 294 history records