Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6370…e2f4 sports 16 markets active 1d ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14,075 (-70%) realized −$14,075 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,248per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$261est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$9,113
other 26% −$5,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-58.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -53.8% -58.2% 19% 19% -74.5%
≤30d 16 -53.8% -58.2% 19% 19% -74.5%
≤90d 16 -53.8% -58.2% 19% 19% -74.5%
all 16 -53.8% -58.2% 19% 19% -74.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.2% 19% -74.5%
10% -62.2% 19% -77.0%
15% -65.9% 12% -79.2%
20% -69.2% 12% -81.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -83% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$997 vs −$1,316 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14,075
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$261
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1,248
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2,034 −$2,000 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 20 $2,045 −$2,000 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2,045 −$2,000 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,008 +$344 +34%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2,047 −$2,000 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $511 +$1,489 +291%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,016 +$1,158 +114%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,042 −$2,000 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $2,034 34h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 25¢ $2,045 39h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2,045 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1,024 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1,024 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $1,023 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1,017 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $1,016 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1,010 3d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 71¢ $1,009 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,023 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1,019 3d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 74¢ $1,008 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 9¢ $103 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $307 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $508 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $204 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $508 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2,042 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records