Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:17:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
63 0x637b…948b sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$27,205 (+28%) realized +$27,357 · open −$152
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%47W / 13L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$1,564per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$659est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$675now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days+$355
14 days+$740
30 days+$2,640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$28,813
other 13% −$2,492
world 1% +$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.1% +5.0% 83% 67% +1.7%
≤30d 28 +41.5% +28.0% 86% 71% +9.8%
≤90d 60 +32.8% +20.1% 78% 67% +18.8%
all 60 +32.8% +20.1% 78% 67% +18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.1% 67% +18.8%
10% ← realistic here +8.6% 52% +7.5%
15% -1.9% 45% -2.9%
20% -11.5% 35% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$596) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$658 vs −$335 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.1 per $1 lost it wins $7.1
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$675
Realized+$27,357
Unrealized−$152
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses47 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$659
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage43d
Avg bet$1,564
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 75¢ 66¢ $562 $499 −$64 (-11%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $264 $176 −$89 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $391 −$96 -25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $520 +$190 +36%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $472 +$133 +28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $95 +$12 +13%
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $37 +$13 +36%
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,347 +$104 +8%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 09 $130 +$28 +22%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 09 $319 +$28 +9%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $121 +$72 +59%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $188 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $506 +$93 +18%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 08 $1,140 +$158 +14%
Map Handicap: CHAOS (-1.5) vs WRAITH PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 07 $205 −$205 -100%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $61 +$208 +338%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $345 +$148 +43%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $893 +$185 +21%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Q Jun 03 $280 +$34 +12%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 01 $4 +$10 +270%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $381 −$381 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs CHAOS (BO3) - United21 Group D May 31 $1,862 +$3,090 +166%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $190 +$119 +62%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $11,679 −$2,023 -17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $343 +$43 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $890 +$73 +8%
Map Handicap: xept (-1.5) vs STEP (+1.5) May 28 $205 +$193 +94%
Counter-Strike: xept vs STEP - Map 1 Winner May 28 $291 +$204 +70%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage May 28 $317 +$205 +65%
Counter-Strike: SHISHKA vs Vortex CGO - Map 1 Winner May 21 $1 +$1 +79%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC - Map 2 Winner May 19 $45,181 +$8,315 +18%
Map Handicap: PHA (-1.5) vs TNC (+1.5) May 19 $478 +$180 +38%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC - Map 1 Winner May 19 $8,777 +$1,910 +22%
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5) May 16 $194 +$128 +66%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch S May 16 $825 −$206 -25%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner May 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 15 $114 +$4 +3%
Map Handicap: EF.A (-1.5) vs NeverPlay (+1.5) May 15 $150 +$150 +100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs NeverPlay - Map 2 Winner May 15 $477 +$116 +24%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs NeverPlay - Map 1 Winner May 14 $63 +$24 +38%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs NeverPlay (BO3) - Exort Series May 14 $537 +$200 +37%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs TNC - Map 1 Winner May 11 $729 +$35 +5%
Counter-Strike: NeverPlay vs Younglings (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stag May 10 $1,954 +$2,659 +136%
Map Handicap: Oldboys (-1.5) vs MASQ (+1.5) May 10 $2,309 +$1,388 +60%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 10 $414 +$143 +34%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Oldboys - Map 2 Winner May 10 $81 +$117 +144%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Oldboys - Map 1 Winner May 10 $82 +$117 +142%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Oldboys (BO3) - United21 Group A May 10 $596 +$726 +122%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $1,155 +$845 +73%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $97 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Favbet - Map 1 Winner May 09 $572 +$372 +65%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Galorys - Map 2 Winner May 09 $372 −$363 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 18¢ $58 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 28¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 26¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 36¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 36¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 33¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 26¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 26¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 26¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 26¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 26¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 25¢ $33 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 24¢ $61 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 33¢ $84 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $107 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $97 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $567 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 72¢ $553 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 72¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 72¢ $132 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 72¢ $14 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $520 4d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A SELL G-Time 49¢ $605 4d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY G-Time 37¢ $472 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 90¢ $108 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 79¢ $95 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 73¢ $37 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Fire Flux Esports 100¢ $1,451 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 97¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $674.58 · official $679.80 (match) · 682 history records