Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x637d…e9bf other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$417 (+34%) realized +$424 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$459
sports 8% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.4% -10.8% 58% 58% +23.8%
≤30d 12 -1.4% -10.8% 58% 58% +23.8%
≤90d 12 -1.4% -10.8% 58% 58% +23.8%
all 12 -1.4% -10.8% 58% 58% +23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 58% +23.8%
10% -19.3% 42% +11.9%
15% -27.1% 33% +1.1%
20% -34.3% 25% -8.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +37% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$27 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.84 per $1 lost it wins $3.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$424
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage7d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $180 $173 −$7 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $306 +$262 +86%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$93 +182%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$38 -91%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $86 +$46 +54%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $137 +$39 +28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $111 +$21 +19%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$16 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$47 +47%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$29 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $183 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 83¢ $384 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 43¢ $184 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 47¢ $108 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 47¢ $36 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 24h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $133 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $86 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $176 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $71 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $132 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $117 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $148 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $22 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.41 · official $177.80 · 29 history records