Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x637d…3546 other 202 markets active 2d ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$81 (-9%) realized −$84 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%55W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$118
tech 17% +$15
crypto 8% +$6
sports 8% +$17
weather 8% −$9
world 7% +$4
politics 3% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +13.5% +2.7% 21% 21% -10.6%
≤30d 45 +14.3% +3.4% 27% 27% -17.3%
≤90d 181 -13.6% -21.8% 30% 27% -21.6%
all 181 -13.6% -21.8% 30% 27% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 27% -21.6%
10% -29.3% 23% -29.1%
15% -36.1% 21% -36.0%
20% -42.4% 19% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses55 / 126
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions21
Markets (closed)181 / 202
History coverage67d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $42 $45 +$4 (+9%)
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? No 37¢ 40¢ $26 $29 +$2 (+9%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No 50¢ 54¢ $20 $22 +$1 (+7%)
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? No 60¢ 52¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+32%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$8 +276%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$8 +474%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -51%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$8 +291%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$8 +344%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +262%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $7 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $8 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 4? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 +$3 +167%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $2 +$2 +104%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? May 31 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 1? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 29? May 30 $1 +$6 +565%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? May 30 $4 −$1 -24%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 26? May 26 $1 +$4 +363%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 28? May 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 25? May 25 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 27? May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 26? May 25 $2 +$1 +47%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 8? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 61¢ $3 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.12 · official $134.12 (match) · 467 history records