Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:04:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x6380…e633 sports 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$86 (+4%) realized +$87 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR76%break-even
Win rate82%104W / 23L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$39
14 days+$113
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$5
other 41% +$100
world 4% +$19
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +76%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +3.5% -6.4% 79% 77% -6.2%
≤30d 127 +6.9% -3.3% 82% 76% -4.5%
≤90d 127 +6.9% -3.3% 82% 76% -4.5%
all 127 +6.9% -3.3% 82% 76% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 76% -4.5%
10% -12.5% 45% -13.6%
15% -21.0% 20% -22.0%
20% -28.7% 9% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$87
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses104 / 23
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage16d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $51 +$25 +48%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $51 +$20 +40%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $41 +$15 +37%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $35 +$7 +18%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $35 +$10 +28%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$5 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$5 +15%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $41 +$15 +37%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$3 +14%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 27 $20 +$4 +20%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $20 +$5 +24%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $40 +$3 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $20 −$6 -31%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$5 +26%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$7 +37%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $20 +$3 +15%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +19%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 +$2 +21%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $10 +$3 +30%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 +$2 +21%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 +$3 +30%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +27%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$3 +27%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 +$3 +28%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $10 −$8 -83%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +41%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 +$3 +25%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +54%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$7 +69%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 +$2 +24%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 +$2 +21%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 53m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $75 54m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $51 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $41 41h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $41 41h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $42 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $45 42h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 83¢ $35 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $35 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 84¢ $30 2d
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $40 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $41 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $32 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $24 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 82¢ $20 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 63¢ $20 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 85¢ $20 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $25 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $25 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $20 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 74¢ $19 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $20 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 55¢ $14 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.32 · official $99.32 (match) · 257 history records