Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:39:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x6382…a07d crypto 978 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$200 (+8%) realized +$200 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%422W / 519L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day35.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$66
14 days+$112
30 days+$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 +19.5% +8.1% 52% 52% +6.6%
≤30d 814 +11.9% +1.2% 45% 44% +0.7%
≤90d 941 +10.4% -0.2% 45% 44% -0.1%
all 941 +10.4% -0.2% 45% 44% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.2% 44% -0.1%
10% ← realistic here -9.7% 43% -9.7%
15% -18.4% 40% -18.4%
20% -26.4% 36% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$200
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses422 / 519
Open positions1
Markets (closed)941 / 978
History coverage35d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 941 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 46¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$7 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$8 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.04 · official $2.04 (match) · 1677 history records