Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x6383…6e28 sports 715 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,911 (+5%) realized +$5,927 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%396W / 302L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day45.3pace
Fees−$1,685est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,878
7 days+$6,427
14 days+$5,880
30 days+$5,670
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$4,457
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 +31.3% +18.8% 69% 68% +10.6%
≤30d 619 +7.3% -3.0% 58% 55% -5.1%
≤90d 698 +4.8% -5.1% 57% 54% -6.4%
all 698 +4.8% -5.1% 57% 54% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 54% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 46% -15.3%
15% -22.5% 38% -23.5%
20% -30.1% 30% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$157 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$2,454
Realized+$5,927
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses396 / 302
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,685
Open positions16
Markets (closed)698 / 715
History coverage31d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day45.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 698 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 47¢ 90¢ $471 $903 +$431 (+91%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Under 65¢ 100¢ $320 $493 +$172 (+54%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 62¢ 72¢ $173 $199 +$26 (+15%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 Under 58¢ 100¢ $98 $169 +$71 (+72%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 64¢ 70¢ $106 $117 +$11 (+10%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 83¢ 80¢ $107 $104 −$3 (-3%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 56¢ 62¢ $90 $98 +$9 (+10%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5 Under 78¢ 100¢ $70 $89 +$19 (+28%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Over 83¢ 61¢ $111 $82 −$29 (-26%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Over 66¢ 38¢ $99 $57 −$41 (-42%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 35¢ 100¢ $19 $53 +$35 (+185%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Atlanta Braves 79¢ 100¢ $32 $40 +$8 (+27%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins San Francisco Giants 39¢ 10¢ $117 $30 −$87 (-74%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 Over 71¢ 100¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+41%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Pittsburgh Pirates 27¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 45¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Cincinnati Reds 49¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Over 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $3 +$2 +54%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +56%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +89%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 20 $26 +$7 +27%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $354 +$257 +73%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $5 +$5 +89%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $100 +$21 +21%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5) Jun 19 $100 +$72 +72%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $1,015 +$2,602 +256%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $9 +$6 +64%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $100 +$24 +24%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $383 +$86 +22%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $43 +$20 +45%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $105 −$105 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 19 $261 +$226 +86%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $228 −$228 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $1,024 +$1,753 +171%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $21 +$4 +17%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Jun 18 $20 +$3 +17%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $170 −$170 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $3 +$2 +56%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 18 $100 +$41 +41%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $16 +$23 +144%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $7 +$43 +646%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 +$90 +355%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $129 +$94 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $40 +$275 +690%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 18 $8 +$2 +22%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $511 −$476 -93%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 18 $2 +$2 +79%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 18 $3 +$1 +26%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $31 +$20 +65%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 18 $33 +$23 +70%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 18 $29 +$29 +100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $68 +$11 +16%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 18 $75 +$27 +36%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 18 $100 +$13 +13%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $100 +$17 +17%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 18 $100 +$24 +24%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $100 +$36 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 79¢ $7 2m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 84¢ $68 4m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 56¢ $91 10m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 12m
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 70¢ $100 16m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 81¢ $41 23m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 27¢ $1 28m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 63¢ $100 37m
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 39¢ $2 41m
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $3 45m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 83¢ $10 48m
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 48m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 69¢ $7 53m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 71¢ $13 57m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 83¢ $112 59m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $100 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 39¢ $120 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 42¢ $100 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 54¢ $76 1h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 79¢ $32 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 32¢ $11 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 60¢ $74 2h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 78¢ $26 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 63¢ $79 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 78¢ $70 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 65¢ $325 2h
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $100 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 47¢ $481 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $100 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,454.30 · official $2,454.30 (match) · 2111 history records