Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:16:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6383…1346 sports 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$756 (+16%) realized +$750 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%41W / 91L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$26
14 days+$19
30 days−$727
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$854
sports 19% −$68
crypto 1% −$27
world 1% −$34
culture 1% −$21
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +14.9% +4.0% 36% 36% +12.6%
≤30d 20 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 40% -38.6%
≤90d 72 -31.8% -38.3% 24% 24% -2.5%
all 132 -11.6% -20.0% 31% 30% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 30% -3.2%
10% -27.7% 29% -12.4%
15% -34.7% 27% -20.9%
20% -41.1% 23% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$22 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized+$750
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses41 / 91
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)132 / 139
History coverage632d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $56 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Over 57¢ 55¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Kylie Jenner confirmed pregnant in 2026? Yes 23¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 +$51 +165%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$63 +307%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $53 −$38 -72%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $53 +$49 +92%
Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $45 +$36 +79%
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $20 +$20 +102%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $642 +$279 +44%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $1,141 −$1,117 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 23 $14 −$13 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 18 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 06 $102 −$14 -14%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala? May 04 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Nate and Cassie marry in Euphoria: Season 3? May 04 $950 +$1,260 +133%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brandon Dearden be eliminated from Top Chef: Season 23 this week? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 23 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Lexi Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elliot die in Euphoria: Season 3? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Rangers vs. Stars Apr 12 $5 +$3 +56%
Oilers vs. Kings Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Flames vs. Avalanche Mar 31 $10 +$3 +27%
Blues vs. Sharks Mar 31 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 31 $3 +$4 +118%
US Open: Tomas Machac vs Taylor Fritz Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will UCLA win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with President of F Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 21¢ $20 0m
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 2m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $31 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $51 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $14 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $1 10d
Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 10d
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? SELL No 0¢ $0 10d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 2¢ $14 18d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 5¢ $87 18d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 5¢ $2 18d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 5¢ $11 18d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 10¢ $63 18d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 26¢ $19 18d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 26¢ $16 18d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 26¢ $12 18d
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY No 26¢ $5 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.35 · official $251.32 (match) · 357 history records