Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
63 0x6384…3d67 crypto 931 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$200 (+3%) realized +$106 · open +$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%532W / 397L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$506now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$201
7 days+$153
14 days+$145
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$328
crypto 35% −$168
other 21% −$73
world 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -6.9% -15.8% 64% 58% -6.2%
≤30d 527 -4.6% -13.6% 66% 61% -7.4%
≤90d 929 -7.6% -16.4% 57% 53% -9.5%
all 929 -7.6% -16.4% 57% 53% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 53% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 42% -18.2%
15% -31.7% 30% -26.1%
20% -38.4% 19% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$506
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses532 / 397
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)929 / 931
History coverage49d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 929 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 79¢ 100¢ $313 $396 +$84 (+27%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Inner Circle Esports 90¢ 100¢ $99 $110 +$11 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 318 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $278 +$103 +37%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $135 −$106 -78%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $100 +$12 +12%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $20 +$12 +59%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $35 +$29 +83%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $250 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $200 +$15 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$14 +28%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $69 +$32 +47%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $300 +$48 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $270 +$51 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$32 +63%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $50 +$27 +53%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $40 +$11 +28%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $150 +$16 +11%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $170 +$20 +12%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $100 −$99 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $84 +$16 +19%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$14 +143%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$25 +49%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $70 +$33 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$78 -78%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $30 +$7 +23%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $208 −$57 -27%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $150 +$13 +9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 +$10 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $120 +$6 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $12 −$9 -72%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $202 +$17 +8%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +114%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $130 +$15 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 −$5 -68%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 +$9 +71%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $65 +$24 +36%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 +$9 +36%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $12 +$6 +51%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $70 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $52 +$8 +16%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $5 +$3 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 80¢ $300 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 63¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Stake R BUY Inner Circle Esports 90¢ $100 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $53 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $29 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $200 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 88¢ $100 6h
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Phantom 62¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Phantom 61¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY Walczaki 44¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl SELL FOKUS 100¢ $250 9h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY Walczaki 57¢ $10 10h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY Walczaki 55¢ $20 10h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY FOKUS 98¢ $250 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 25h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 76¢ $19 25h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 64¢ $50 25h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 46¢ $4 33h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 22¢ $5 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $300 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $120 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 87¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $505.98 · official $505.98 (match) · 1936 history records