Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6385…2afa sports 929 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,461 (-24%) realized −$3,714 · open −$747
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%345W / 579L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day61.7pace
Fees−$465est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$234
14 days−$574
30 days−$3,862
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$2,698
other 7% −$219
world 4% −$607
tech 3% −$502
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -20.3% -27.9% 34% 31% -24.7%
≤30d 762 -20.8% -28.3% 34% 31% -34.4%
≤90d 924 -11.9% -20.3% 37% 34% -26.6%
all 924 -11.9% -20.3% 37% 34% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 34% -26.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 30% -33.6%
15% -34.9% 26% -40.0%
20% -41.3% 22% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$1,424
Realized−$3,714
Unrealized−$747
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses345 / 579
Est. fees paid−$465
Open positions7
Markets (closed)924 / 929
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day61.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 924 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $1,100 $513 −$587 (-53%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 76¢ 74¢ $517 $503 −$14 (-3%)
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $424 $189 −$235 (-55%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 14¢ $51 $107 +$55 (+108%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $13 $42 +$29 (+224%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $22 $27 +$4 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 149 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $12 +$5 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $23 −$9 -40%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$2 -31%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $7 −$4 -64%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $9 +$18 +201%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$5 +103%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$4 -75%
Will XLG win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 16 $4 +$4 +124%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $9 −$1 -16%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $17 −$9 -51%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$1 -11%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$2 +49%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $19 −$3 -14%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $23 +$6 +26%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $71 +$2 +3%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $28 −$6 -23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $35 −$3 -9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $16 −$8 -48%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$10 -55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $17 −$13 -78%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$5 -82%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$5 -38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 −$17 -42%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$2 +18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$4 +58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $28 −$20 -72%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $21 +$8 +39%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$6 -78%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$2 +29%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 $0 -5%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$8 +112%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $9 −$4 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 25¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 25¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 25¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 37¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 17¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 8¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 44¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 34¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 60¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 45¢ $9 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 48¢ $2 32h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 48¢ $2 32h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $5 32h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner SELL GenOne 8¢ $2 44h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 16¢ $2 44h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 25¢ $3 44h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 25¢ $2 44h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 25¢ $0 44h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 55¢ $12 44h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 46¢ $10 45h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner SELL GenOne 24¢ $1 45h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner SELL GenOne 62¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 21¢ $2 45h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner SELL KOLESIE 68¢ $11 45h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner SELL KOLESIE 52¢ $3 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,424.03 · official $1,424.03 (match) · 3500 history records