Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x6385…93f2
other · 351 markets active 5h ago
1.5score
+$12,023 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,503 · open +$676
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,345
Realized+$2,503
Unrealized+$676
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses254 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)346 / 351
History coverage98d
Avg bet$727
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 4 History 346 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,613
7 days+$4,045
14 days+$6,039
30 days+$8,498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $1,816 $1,967 +$151 (+8%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? Yes 72¢ 94¢ $1,435 $1,888 +$453 (+32%)
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $1,356 $1,426 +$70 (+5%)
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? No 97¢ 100¢ $63 $64 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $106 +$94 +89%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $394 −$53 -13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 13 $67 +$4 +7%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 13 $42 −$20 -47%
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $93 +$25 +27%
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $605 +$190 +31%
Will MrBeast say "Jet" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $36 +$4 +12%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $2,387 +$588 +25%
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $275 +$55 +20%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n Jun 13 $1,955 +$397 +20%
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $39 +$7 +18%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $3,560 +$591 +17%
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $288 +$119 +41%
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube v Jun 13 $204 +$154 +75%
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $307 +$52 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $183 +$42 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $334 +$143 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$98 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$40 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $76 +$55 +73%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 10 $24 +$7 +32%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $114 +$19 +17%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $3,901 +$919 +24%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7,604 +$1,713 +22%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $1,070 +$444 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 07 $164 +$106 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $110 +$20 +18%
Will MrBeast hit 129 billion views by June 30? Jun 07 $155 −$142 -92%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 07 $604 −$579 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Dream" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $166 +$6 +4%
Will MrBeast say "Lose" or "Loser" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 06 $285 +$2 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee Jun 06 $255 +$462 +181%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $356 +$63 +18%
Will MrBeast say "Pro" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $235 +$3 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Race" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $423 +$20 +5%
Will MrBeast say "YouTube" or "YouTuber" during his next gaming YouTub Jun 06 $115 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Chase" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Karl" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Hunt" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Chocolate" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $132 +$5 +4%
Will MrBeast say "Survive" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $342 +$16 +5%
Will MrBeast say "Simulate" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $87 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Roblox" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $245 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 82% −$529
crypto 7% +$1,489
tech 7% +$2,467
world 4% +$119
sports 0% −$391
politics 0% +$2
culture 0% +$8
finance 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 71¢ $373 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 71¢ $245 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 71¢ $7 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 71¢ $21 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 71¢ $21 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 71¢ $21 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 71¢ $7 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 71¢ $7 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 71¢ $7 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 70¢ $213 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 70¢ $36 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 75¢ $8 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 75¢ $40 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 75¢ $22 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 75¢ $8 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 75¢ $22 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 75¢ $66 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 75¢ $22 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 75¢ $43 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 75¢ $9 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 75¢ $39 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 75¢ $8 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 75¢ $26 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 75¢ $22 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 75¢ $3 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 75¢ $35 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $67 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.6% -10.0% 69% 67% +4.6%
≤30d 152 +6.8% -3.4% 76% 46% -2.4%
≤90d 325 +8.4% -1.9% 73% 46% -2.4%
all 346 +9.5% -1.0% 73% 45% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.0% 45% -8.6%
10% -10.4% 35% -17.4%
15% ← realistic here -19.1% 28% -25.3%
20% -27.0% 24% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,344.97 · official $5,344.97 (match) · 3500 history records