Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6385…7ccc crypto 657 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,167 (-29%) realized −$4,167 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%636W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$92
other 9% −$81
finance 6% −$16
tech 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -4.0% -13.1% 94% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 345 -2.6% -11.9% 95% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 657 -1.2% -10.6% 97% 0% -9.6%
all 657 -1.2% -10.6% 97% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,167
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses636 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)657 / 657
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 657 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $49 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $12 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $49 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $28 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $12 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $17 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $4 33h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $0 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 41h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $14 41h
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $9 41h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 41h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $19 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $29 41h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 92¢ $8 41h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $49 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $30 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 41h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 41h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $11 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.47 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records