Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x638d…3e5b other 43 markets active 1d ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,393 (+5%) realized +$4,393 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate77%33W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$1,905per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$162
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$4,715
sports 4% −$197
crypto 0% −$40
politics 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.0% -7.7% 60% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 64% 9% -9.9%
≤90d 16 +1.8% -7.9% 69% 19% -8.6%
all 43 +0.0% -9.5% 77% 30% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 30% -4.6%
10% -18.1% 21% -13.8%
15% -26.1% 14% -22.1%
20% -33.3% 5% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,003) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$95 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.68 per $1 lost it wins $5.68
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,393
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses33 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage246d
Avg bet$1,905
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,003 +$75 +8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,003 +$92 +5%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $451 −$8 -2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,000 +$4 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $501 +$49 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $415 −$120 -29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $601 −$202 -34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $501 +$37 +7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $501 +$42 +8%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $403 +$105 +26%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $2,000 +$169 +8%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $1,999 +$146 +7%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $999 −$356 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 14 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 14 $51 +$36 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 14 $38 +$13 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 14 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Feb 14 $29 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Feb 14 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Feb 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $30 +$13 +43%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 03 $11,372 +$545 +5%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 16 $40 −$40 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 16 $6,500 +$600 +9%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9? Dec 10 $5,000 +$208 +4%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5? Dec 06 $5,000 +$163 +3%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-03? Dec 04 $30 +$7 +22%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 01 $3,000 +$125 +4%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 01 $11,372 +$984 +9%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21? Nov 22 $1,023 +$379 +37%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Nov 15 $5,347 +$248 +5%
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025? Nov 12 $11 −$11 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7? Nov 06 $6,850 +$542 +8%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2? Nov 03 $5,000 +$159 +3%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Nov 01 $5,418 +$389 +7%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24? Oct 25 $1,007 +$111 +11%
FC Barcelona vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 3.5 Oct 22 $3 +$4 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 97¢ $1,078 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 90¢ $1,003 30h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $2,003 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 89¢ $444 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $451 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 84¢ $100 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 84¢ $100 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,000 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $501 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 58¢ $296 7d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $415 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 62¢ $400 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $601 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 10d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $501 10d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $501 12d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? SELL No 99¢ $508 44d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 78¢ $403 44d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,003 52d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-22? BUY No 92¢ $2,000 62d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-21? BUY No 93¢ $1,999 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? SELL Yes 48¢ $643 74d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? BUY Yes 74¢ $999 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $23 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $87 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $38 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $36 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $29 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records