Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x638d…9f0c other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$18
politics 29% −$11
sports 9% +$53
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 104 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 3% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×10.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage130d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $350 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $244 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $288 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $237 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $283 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 18 $269 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $239 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $437 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $274 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $804 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $219 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $293 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $275 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $313 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $303 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $269 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $274 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $268 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $316 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $243 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $319 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $226 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $271 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $226 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $220 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 05 $294 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $297 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 04 $333 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $309 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $320 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $242 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $321 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 36h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 36h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 17d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 18d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $250 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $250 22d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $344 25d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $344 29d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $244 30d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $244 32d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $249 32d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $249 35d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $288 35d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $288 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $39 51d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $32 59d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $237 60d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $237 61d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $283 61d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $283 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $269 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $269 62d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $239 62d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $239 62d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $218 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.98 · official $43.98 (match) · 330 history records