Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x638d…55e4 crypto 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$19 (-6%) realized +$5 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate76%65W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$1
other 23% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -1.9% -11.2% 84% 47% -9.3%
≤30d 86 -2.8% -12.0% 76% 43% -10.1%
≤90d 86 -2.8% -12.0% 76% 43% -10.1%
all 86 -2.8% -12.0% 76% 43% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 43% -10.1%
10% -20.5% 13% -18.7%
15% -28.1% 2% -26.5%
20% -35.2% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses65 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $49 $24 −$24 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.34 · official $24.34 (match) · 187 history records