Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:45:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
63 0x6394…d021 crypto 313 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$440 (-4%) realized −$440 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%168W / 145L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$569
7 days−$560
14 days−$425
30 days−$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$364
sports 12% −$98
other 11% −$79
finance 3% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +3.4% -6.5% 58% 42% -23.7%
≤30d 43 -0.1% -9.6% 58% 40% -12.2%
≤90d 79 -2.3% -11.6% 54% 39% -12.5%
all 313 -5.3% -14.3% 54% 46% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 46% -14.1%
10% -22.5% 44% -22.4%
15% -30.0% 42% -29.9%
20% -36.9% 41% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses168 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)313 / 313
History coverage150d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 313 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $806 −$755 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $725 +$75 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $702 +$23 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $691 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET Jun 24 $605 +$75 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +100%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $407 +$135 +33%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 10 $401 +$19 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $307 +$129 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $202 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $204 +$67 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $23 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $204 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 03 $249 −$28 -11%
Heilbronn: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alex Barrena Jun 02 $209 +$40 +19%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $1 $0 -6%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs KO (BO3) - Esports World Cup MESWA Closed Qual Jun 02 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +90%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1 +$1 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 22 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 100 and 200 hours without failur May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? May 18 $137 +$73 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 5¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 73¢ $806 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $725 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $702 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $691 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $605 26h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 635 history records