Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:27:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x6396…4ded crypto 57 markets active 5d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-12%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate74%42W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -3.4% -12.6% 77% 46% -20.0%
≤30d 57 -8.5% -17.2% 74% 44% -23.2%
≤90d 57 -8.5% -17.2% 74% 44% -23.2%
all 57 -8.5% -17.2% 74% 44% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 44% -23.2%
10% -25.1% 26% -30.5%
15% -32.3% 14% -37.3%
20% -39.0% 9% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses42 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records