Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
63 0x6399…b30b crypto 85 markets active 7d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$442 (-2%) realized −$442 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%52W / 32L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$905
sports 1% +$39
other 0% $0
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 50% -17.3%
≤30d 84 -3.8% -12.9% 62% 54% -14.1%
≤90d 84 -3.8% -12.9% 62% 54% -14.1%
all 84 -3.8% -12.9% 62% 54% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 54% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 51% -22.3%
15% -28.9% 38% -29.8%
20% -35.8% 25% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$139 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$442
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses52 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage4d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$29 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$22 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$18 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$25 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$29 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$37 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $409 −$400 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$59 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $822 −$800 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $510 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $714 +$26 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $510 +$204 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $206 +$133 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $512 +$218 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $207 +$212 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$49 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $205 +$95 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $207 −$116 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $207 +$92 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $83 +$38 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $207 +$209 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $406 +$101 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $42 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $32 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $32 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $32 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $14 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $32 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $32 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $32 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $32 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $33 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $32 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $32 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records