Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x639c…9bd7 world 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%24W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$6
politics 15% +$1
other 13% −$11
sports 12% −$1
economics 11% +$1
finance 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.0% -10.5% 12% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 32 +0.1% -9.4% 22% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 73 -0.6% -10.1% 29% 3% -9.7%
all 78 -1.8% -11.2% 31% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -10.0%
10% -19.7% 1% -18.6%
15% -27.4% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses24 / 54
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage527d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $38 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $76 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $38 $0 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $66 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $61 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $81 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $85 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $43 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $151 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $100 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $32 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $39 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $50 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $64 −$3 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $1 $0 -13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $92 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $46 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 18 $7 −$1 -15%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $72 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $2 $0 -14%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $191 +$2 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $23 −$2 -8%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 20 $83 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $39 +$2 +5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $41 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $41 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $10 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $27 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $2 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $36 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $17 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $21 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $38 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $38 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $17 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $7 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $14 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $37 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $32 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $16 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $35 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $7 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $42 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $15 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.00 (match) · 400 history records