Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:10:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x639c…31e2 sports 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52,846 (-9%) realized −$58,154 · open +$5,308
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%55W / 71L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,482per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$6,394est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$22,108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,990
7 days−$137,423
14 days−$131,499
30 days−$102,021
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$27,512
other 27% −$28,289
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -62.7% -66.3% 18% 18% -57.8%
≤30d 62 -29.3% -36.0% 35% 35% -41.0%
≤90d 126 -10.2% -18.8% 44% 44% -19.6%
all 126 -10.2% -18.8% 44% 44% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 44% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 44% -27.3%
15% -33.6% 44% -34.3%
20% -40.1% 44% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$6,088) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4,338 vs −$4,221 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$22,108
Realized−$58,154
Unrealized+$5,308
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses55 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Est. fees paid−$6,394
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage59d
Avg bet$4,482
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 68¢ $16,800 $22,108 +$5,308 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9,674 +$7,376 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9,506 −$9,366 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10,141 −$1,260 -12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11,721 −$11,466 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10,159 +$11,118 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5,880 +$4,803 +82%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3,210 +$3,375 +105%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 15 $5,078 −$5,000 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4,113 +$3,834 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5,069 −$5,000 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10,156 −$10,000 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3,653 +$3,406 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,129 −$10,000 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $13,993 +$11,882 +85%
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5) Jun 13 $295 −$295 -100%
Granada CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $559 −$559 -100%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-06-06? Jun 13 $690 −$690 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $813 −$813 -100%
Club Olimpia vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $943 −$943 -100%
CA Boston River vs. O'Higgins FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,028 −$1,028 -100%
FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,118 −$1,118 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 170.5 Jun 13 $1,469 −$1,469 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 172.5 Jun 13 $1,472 −$1,472 -100%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 13 $1,624 −$1,624 -100%
Racing Club vs. Caracas FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,581 −$2,581 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 13 $2,777 −$2,777 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 167.5 Jun 13 $2,973 −$2,973 -100%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-21? Jun 13 $3,048 −$3,048 -100%
Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-05-16? Jun 13 $3,048 −$3,048 -100%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3,452 −$3,452 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 13 $3,549 −$3,549 -100%
San Diego FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3,901 −$3,901 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $2,335 −$2,335 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 13 $5,066 −$5,066 -100%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? Jun 13 $3,957 −$3,957 -100%
Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $4,374 −$4,374 -100%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 13 $4,142 −$4,142 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $4,169 −$4,169 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 13 $6,284 −$6,284 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 13 $7,211 −$7,211 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5) Jun 13 $7,121 −$7,121 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) Jun 13 $8,869 −$8,869 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9,136 −$9,136 -100%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-20? Jun 13 $9,138 −$9,138 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 13 $8,922 −$8,922 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 13 $10,070 −$10,070 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Jun 13 $12,136 −$12,136 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 13 $4,263 +$4,137 +97%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 13 $3,100 +$3,008 +97%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) Jun 12 $913 +$851 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,826 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5,073 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5,073 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5,072 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $9,674 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $9,506 34h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 48¢ $8,881 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 53¢ $10,141 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $11,721 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $10,159 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $5,880 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $3,210 3d
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5,078 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4,113 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5,069 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10,156 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $3,653 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10,129 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $9,127 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $4,866 6d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3,100 7d
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 50¢ $4,263 7d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) BUY Dallas Wings 51¢ $913 8d
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 50¢ $2,777 9d
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 50¢ $2,189 9d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2,973 9d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Nigeria 50¢ $1,108 9d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $7,121 11d
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $36 13d
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,800 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,108.03 · official $22,108.03 (match) · 308 history records